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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they unpack the $3T AI buildout, circular revenue red flags, and whether the boom is becoming a bubble. They dive into the rise of stablecoins and the new financial rails reshaping money, the fight over AI regulation in America, and Bill’s next chapter—his new book Runnin' Down a Dream and what it means to build a career you actually love. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:00) Two Years of BG2
(03:45) Bill Stepping Back to Write His Book
(06:00) Runnin' Down a Dream
(07:00) The AI CapEx Bubble?
(09:30) Sham vs. Real Transactions in AI
(11:00) Microsoft–OpenAI Credits & Cloud Economics
(13:00) Nvidia’s Investments: Healthy or Hype?
(17:00) CoreWeave, Hidden Leverage & Demand Risks
(19:15) $3 Trillion CapEx: Are We Overbuilding AI?
(21:45) The MAG5 CapEx Surge: Too Much, Too Fast?
(24:30) Meta’s CapEx Comeback & AI ROI
(25:30) OpenAI’s Race for Escape Velocity
(28:30) AI Regulation: State Patchwork Madness
(30:30) Why Federal Preemption Is Critical
(33:15) The Colorado & California AI Acts
(35:00) Stablecoin Surge: $18T in Settlements
(36:45) Gurley’s Crypto Conversion
(38:30) From PIX to FedNow: The Future of Digital Money
(41:00) Coinbase, Circle, and the 4% Yield Revolution
(43:00) Why Visa & Banks Fear Stablecoins
(45:00) Gurley: “I’m Jumping on the Crypto Train”
(46:00) Brad on Invest America (Trump Accounts)
(49:00) Implementation Timeline & Treasury Update
(50:30) Bill’s Book: Runnin' Down a Dream
(53:15) The Great Career Reset: Passion vs. Grind
(55:00) Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework
(57:00) Who the Book Is For
(59:00) Gurley’s Next Mission
Show Notes:
All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM
Plain English: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-could-burst/id1594471023?i=1000728026459
Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod