Prediction markets are turning into real-time intelligence, and policymakers are already reacting. In this week’s Weekly Rollup, Ryan and David unpack the Venezuela “Maduro” trade, the debate over fairness vs. public signal, and Polymarket’s expansion into real estate markets. They also cover Bitcoin’s lowest-vol year ever, Solana’s DEX surge, Ethereum’s stablecoin settlement ATH, Morgan Stanley’s crypto ETF filings, Zcash’s governance blowup, Lighter’s massive $LIT airdrop, Vitalik’s “trilemma solved” claim, Wyoming’s state stablecoin, and Strategy’s path toward major indices.
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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES
0:00 Intro
2:49 Markets
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2025-ray-dalio-kaf8e/
https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2008568524046991733
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bl
https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/bitcoin-least-volatile-year/
https://x.com/NTmoney/status/2007111582317215767
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2007167084980044071
https://x.com/smyyguy/status/2009282261384888407
https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2007980573365502161
https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/2008527564550156315
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2008926447205843202
https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/2008542347425149247
14:03 Did Polymarket reveal the Venezuela invasion hours prior the announcement?
https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4370431/trump-announces-us-militarys-capture-of-maduro/
https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2007455311351718118
https://x.com/0xKelle/status/2008099287851561262
https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/2007497192974459372
https://x.com/QuiverQuant/status/2008029132484206664
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2008245382539882784
https://x.com/zoomerfied/status/2008184924377960502
25:41 Polymarket Market of the Week
27:42 ZEC dump and resignation
https://x.com/solidintel_x/status/2009172254496870816
https://x.com/DefiIgnas/status/2009235841751613660
31:05 Lighter launched the Lighter Infrastructure Token
https://x.com/Lighter_xyz/status/2005862682608472263
https://x.com/bubblemaps/status/2006296418622001313
https://defillama.com/protocol/perps/lighter-perps
https://x.com/Lighter_xyz/status/2008309047787753497
35:27 Has Ethereum resolved the blockchain trilemma?
https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2007559523528233041
https://x.com/ralexstokes/status/2008707458563535022
https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2008174642066845778
https://x.com/dankrad/status/2008466291913265443
45:49 SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw resigned
https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/2007195935403847868
46:32 Major US retailers are accepting crypto payments
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-starbucks-more-accepting-crypto-202205775.html
48:14 Wyoming launches first US state-issued stablecoin
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2008958574962028924
50:00 MSCI decided not to exclude DATs from their indexes
https://www.msci.com/indexes/index-resources/index-announcements
51:28 Closing & Disclaimers
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