Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen return with 10 big predictions for 2026.
From the case for $1M BTC (and why the classic four-year cycle may be dead) to a world where ETFs soak up more than 100% of new BTC/ETH/SOL supply.
We get into Bitcoin volatility vs. mega-cap tech, crypto equities vs. tech equities, and why Polymarket could smash past its 2024 election-era highs.
Plus: stablecoins as an “escape valve” that emerging economies may blame for currency stress, on-chain also known as “ETFs 2.0,” and how the Clarity Act could be the starter’s gun for ETH and SOL to run.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Last Year Predictions
13:12 1. Bitcoin Breaks 4-Year Cycle
16:19 2. BTC Less Volatile Than NVDA
22:09 3. ETFs Purchasing New Supply of Crypto
30:02 4. Crypto Equities Outperforming Equities
37:23 5. Prediction Markets All-Time Highs
42:50 6. Stablecons Destabilizing Currencies
48:16 7. Onchain Vaults Doubling in AUM
52:56 8. Clarity Act Triggering ETH & Sol All-Time Highs
56:40 9. Ivy League Endowments Investing in Crypto
58:49 10. 100+ Crypto ETPs Launching
1:01:14 Bitwise Announcement
1:04:08 Bonus. Bitcoin Equity Correlation Falling
1:07:29 Progress in 2025
1:10:48 Cross-Generational Wealth Transfer?
1:13:02 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers
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RESOURCES
Matt Hougan
https://x.com/Matt_Hougan
Ryan Rasmussen
https://x.com/RasterlyRock
Bitwise
https://bitwiseinvestments.com/
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