#666: In this First Friday economic update, we explore the paradox defining our current economy: record-breaking retail numbers alongside plummeting consumer confidence.
In this First Friday economic update, we explore the paradox defining our current economy: we're spending more than ever, while feeling worse about money than we have in years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics hasn't released jobs data for two consecutive months. The Federal Reserve must make a critical interest rate decision flying blind.
Meanwhile, private sector data reveals troubling trends. Small businesses are hemorrhaging jobs while discount chains like Dollar General see their stock prices soar 44%.
Americans are spending differently this holiday season. They're shopping earlier, using AI to find deals, and turning to buy-now-pay-later options. Households are spending less than last year, yet total spending increases because more people are participating.
This K-shaped recovery benefits luxury retailers and bargain stores while crushing the middle market.
We also cover essential year-end financial moves. From maximizing retirement contributions to tax-loss harvesting strategies, we help you navigate your personal finances amid economic uncertainty.
The disconnect between what the numbers say – and how people feel – reveals deeper truths about an economy that's technically growing while leaving many behind.
Timestamps:
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(0:00) Spotify Wrapped and podcast listener data
(2:05) Jobs report missing, BLS delays
(5:01) ADP shows 32,000 job losses
(8:00) Youth unemployment over 10%
(10:32) Fed meeting without data
(12:24) Mortgage rates might drop below 6%
(20:06) Holiday spending hits $1 trillion
(23:43) Consumers spend less individually
(26:36) Discount stores outperform market
(28:29) Shopping starts in October now
(30:22) AI helps holiday shopping
(36:09) Giving Tuesday up 11%
(38:28) Year-end money moves
(45:00) Charity and gift tax limits
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