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Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War
Dec 19, 2025 1h 54m

Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War

This is the final episode of the Sarah Paine lecture series, and it’s probably my favorite one. Sarah gives a “tour of the arguments” on what ultimately led to the Soviet Union’s collapse, diving i...

Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
Nov 12, 2025 1h 27m

Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.Microsoft is building multiple Fairwater...

Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise
Oct 31, 2025 1h 30m

Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.This lecture was particularly inte...

Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
Oct 17, 2025 2h 25m

Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away

The Andrej Karpathy episode.During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuri...

Nick Lane – Life as we know it is chemically inevitable
Oct 10, 2025 1h 20m

Nick Lane – Life as we know it is chemically inevitable

Nick Lane has some pretty wild ideas about the evolution of life.He thinks early life was continuous with the spontaneous chemistry of undersea hydrothermal vents.Nick’s story may be wrong, but I f...

Some thoughts on the Sutton interview
Oct 04, 2025 11 min

Some thoughts on the Sutton interview

I have a much better understanding of Sutton’s perspective now. I wanted to reflect on it a bit.(00:00:00) - The steelman(00:02:42) - TLDR of my current thoughts(00:03:22) - Imitation learning is c...

Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end
Sep 26, 2025 1h 6m

Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end

Richard Sutton is the father of reinforcement learning, winner of the 2024 Turing Award, and author of The Bitter Lesson. And he thinks LLMs are a dead end.After interviewing him, my steel man of R...

How Hitler almost starved Britain – Sarah Paine
Sep 05, 2025 1h 35m

How Hitler almost starved Britain – Sarah Paine

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to tod...

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
Jul 03, 2025 14 min

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years. Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of Jun...